UNITED STATES: A New I.M.F.?
This selection first appeared in the The Wall Street Journal on December 16, 1999. Page A22. (Copyright (c) 1999, Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)
The International Monetary Fund was created to sustain a
system of fixed exchange rates, providing temporary financing
while member nations took more fundamental steps to protect
their currencies when they came under speculative attack.
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods monetary system in
1971 and the advent of floating exchange rates, it has been
trying to invent itself a new mission.
Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers served up the latest
version the other night, saying the IMF should stop making
loans to developed countries, should pre-approve loans to
countries that might need them, and provide emergency loans
when it forgot to pre-approve them. Got it? What this is all
about, of course, is U.S. taxpayer money for the IMF. The IMF
has recently presided over debacles in Mexico and Asia, and
currently wants a new infusion of cash for debt forgiveness of
loans to the most hopeless economies. So the Treasury
Secretary, who really runs the fund behind the scenes, has to
talk a lot about reform to placate Congressional skeptics such
as House Minority Leader Dick Armey. After all, serious men,
former Secretary of State and Treasury George Shultz for
example, have proposed to abolish the IMF outright, as swollen
beyond any defensible purpose and doing more harm than good.
We ourselves don't find reform entirely inconceivable. It
should be humanly possible, after all, to stop giving bad
advice and start giving good advice. A reformed IMF might stop
telling lovelorn central banks that their currencies are
"overvalued," for example, and tell them that to defend their
currency abroad they need to keep it sound at home. A reformed
IMF might even recognize that money is fungible, and that
money poured into Russia finances capital flight and wars in
Chechnya.
These do not seem to be the kind of reforms Mr. Summers has
in mind. He says, for example, that countries practicing a
fixed exchange rate "should be expected to disclose the nature
of their exit strategy." This is precisely the advice that has
caused such mischief around the world. Mr. Summers observed
that Mexico in 1994 and Thailand in 1997 suffered "a sudden
loss of confidence and large-scale withdrawal of capital,"
until "a kind of bank run psychology took hold." The
confidence in question is confidence in a currency, and you
lose it the moment investors start to whiff an "exit
strategy."
For all Mr. Summers's talk, the only concrete sign of
reform at the IMF is the departure of Michel Camdessus, who
had repeatedly urged the Thai devaluation. The leading
candidate to succeed him seems to be Caio Koch-Weser, deputy
finance minister in Germany's socialist regime and a long-time
World Bank bureaucrat. We would be much more complacent about
reform with our own original suggestion of Bank of France
Governor Jean-Claude Trichet. But to judge by Mr. Summers's
speech, real reform may have to wait for a new Treasury.
Even sounder economics, though, would not solve the problem
of a new role for the IMF. We have a suggestion. The most
salient fact in the international economy is that the world
now has three main currencies -- the dollar, the euro and the
yen -- which among them account for more than 90% of
cross-border international transactions. The euro began life
nearly a year ago at a robust 1.18 to the dollar, but has
lately been hovering around 1.00. The yen meanwhile is closing
out the millennium in bullish fashion, trading at 103 to the
dollar vs. a 12-month low of 124.
It occurs to us that the world could use a good debate on
whether this amount of volatility actually reflects
real-sector fundamentals or promotes good allocation of
resources. On whether central banks ought to keep an eye on
exchange rates, not in useless "intervention" in foreign
exchange markets, but in setting basic monetary policy. At the
moment, that is, whether it would be wise for the Bank of
Japan to print more yen and/or the European Central Bank to
print fewer euros.
These are the issues raised by Robert Mundell in his Nobel
Prize lecture last week, and the IMF and for that matter the
Treasury could probably do some good by offering some views of
their own. Instead of rearranging deck chairs, at the very
least they would be advancing reform by elevating the relevant
issue.
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